The St. Louis Blues' first-round pick, Justin Carbonneau, selected 19th overall in the 2025 NHL Draft, has opted to return to the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League (QMJHL) to play for the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada for the 2025-26 season. This decision comes after he contemplated playing college hockey at Boston College. While returning to a familiar environment might seem like a safe choice, it raises questions about whether it's the best path for his development.

Carbonneau had a standout season with the Armada, finishing second in the QMJHL with 89 points (46 goals, 43 assists) in 62 games. The 6-foot-1, 192-pound right-winger is known for his powerful skating, puck-handling skills, and ability to score. He impressed the Blues' management and fans at prospect camp. Despite the positives, his decision to stay in the QMJHL presents potential drawbacks.

One concern is whether Carbonneau will face a high enough level of competition in the QMJHL to push his development. While he dominated last season, returning to the same league might not provide the challenges necessary for growth compared to playing in college. Some believe that he can make a quicker transition to the NHL from the QMJHL.

Opting for Boston College would have provided a different development path. NCAA hockey is known for its structured environment and emphasis on skill development. Playing against older, more experienced players could have forced Carbonneau to adapt and elevate his game. The college route also offers academic opportunities, providing a backup plan if a professional hockey career doesn't pan out.

However, the landscape of CHL and NCAA has been changing recently. The NCAA Division I council voted to allow players from the CHL to compete in NCAA Division I hockey without jeopardizing their eligibility, provided they don't get paid more than necessary expenses. This has led to an exodus of talent from the CHL to the NCAA, with many players committing to U.S. college programs. Projected 2026 No. 1 NHL Draft pick Gavin McKenna recently chose Penn State over the WHL's Medicine Hat Tigers.

By returning to the QMJHL, Carbonneau retains the option of attending the Blues' training camp and potentially earning an NHL roster spot. Should he make the team, the Blues can showcase him for nine NHL games before deciding whether to keep him in the NHL or send him back to junior. This flexibility wouldn't have been available had he chosen the college route.

Another factor is the Armada's potential for success. The team is expected to be a contender for the QMJHL title and a potential Memorial Cup run. Playing on a winning team could provide valuable experience and exposure for Carbonneau.

Ultimately, Justin Carbonneau's decision to return to the QMJHL is a calculated risk. While it offers familiarity and a chance to compete for a championship, it also raises questions about whether it's the optimal path for his long-term development. Only time will tell if this choice will help him achieve his goal of playing in the NHL.