FIFA has announced a significant change to the World Cup draw format that could potentially benefit England's chances in the 2026 tournament. The draw, scheduled for December 5th at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C., will implement a new seeding system that aims to keep the top teams apart until the later stages of the competition.
Under the new regulations, the top four ranked teams in the FIFA rankings will be placed on opposite sides of the tournament bracket, meaning they cannot face each other until the semi-finals. As of the latest FIFA rankings, Spain, Argentina, France, and England occupy the top four spots, respectively. This ensures that Spain and Argentina would be kept apart, as would France and England, until the semi-final stage, provided they all win their groups.
This change is a departure from previous World Cup draw formats and is designed to create a more balanced and exciting tournament, with the potential for heavyweight clashes in the final. It also means that England will avoid facing either Spain or Argentina until a potential semi-final match. Avoiding a strong team like France, who eliminated England in the 2022 World Cup, until the final could significantly improve England's chances of reaching the final.
The 2026 World Cup, hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, will be the first to feature an expanded format of 48 teams, up from 32 in previous editions. The 48 teams will be divided into 12 groups of four, with the top two teams from each group, along with the eight best third-placed teams, advancing to a new Round of 32. The tournament will feature a total of 104 matches.
The draw on December 5th will determine the pathways for all 48 teams, with 42 of the qualified nations already known. The remaining six spots will be filled by the winners of play-off matches in March 2026. The three host nations, Mexico, Canada, and the United States, have automatically qualified and will be placed in Pot 1, with Mexico in Group A, Canada in Group B, and the United States in Group D. The other teams will be seeded based on the FIFA rankings as of November 19, 2025.
The new format also brings changes to the group stage dynamics. With 16 European teams participating and only 12 groups, four groups will have multiple teams from Europe. However, no group can have more than two European teams, and no team will face another from their qualifying confederation in the group stage.
The changes to the draw have been welcomed by many, who believe it will lead to a more exciting and unpredictable tournament. For England, in particular, the new seeding system offers a potential advantage, as they will avoid some of the other top teams until the semi-finals. However, they could still face tough competition from other strong teams in their group and in the knockout stages.
