The Edmonton Oilers' struggles this season have largely been attributed to inconsistent goaltending, sparking discussions about potential upgrades. Amidst the speculation, the name Jordan Binnington has surfaced as a possible solution, leading to analytical comparisons between him and the Oilers' current tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard.
Former NHL goaltender and current analyst Stephen Valiquette recently shared his insights, suggesting that the Oilers could be in a significantly better position with Binnington in net. Valiquette's analysis focuses on specific areas where Binnington excels, such as breakaway and rebound control. He estimates that Binnington could have saved the Oilers approximately 16 more goals this season based on his historical performance in these situations.
Valiquette highlighted the Oilers' vulnerability on breakaways, stating that the team has allowed 14 goals on 33 breakaway chances this year. He argues that even a league-average goalie would have saved six more of those shots. While Valiquette's calculations are open to interpretation, his central point underscores a potential advantage that Binnington could bring to the Oilers.
Currently, Binnington, 32, holds a 6-6-5 record with a 3.20 goals-against average and a .878 save percentage in 16 starts for the St. Louis Blues. These numbers, however, may not fully reflect his capabilities, considering he plays behind a struggling Blues team.
Examining the numbers further, Skinner's November save percentage was .863, while Pickard's was .848. This indicates that both goalies performed slightly below the average NHL standard during that period. For the entire season, Skinner has an expected save percentage of .880 and an actual save percentage of .878, suggesting he is performing slightly below expectations.
However, when comparing Binnington's overall performance to Skinner's, some analysts suggest Skinner has performed better to start the 2025-26 campaign. Skinner has an impressive 2.9 goals-saved-above-expected (GSAX), with a 3.00 GAA and a .885 SV% through 17 games, winning eight of them, and adding one shutout. Binnington has struggled out of the gates, as he currently has the third-worst goals-saved-above-expected (GSAX) in the entire league with a -6.0. He also has a 3.13 goals-against-average (GAA) and a .880 save percentage (SV%) through 15 games.
Despite Binnington's pedigree and past success, questions remain about whether his best years are behind him. His regular-season statistics have declined over the past two seasons, raising concerns about his consistency.
The possibility of a trade between the Oilers and the Blues involving Binnington has been a topic of discussion. Nick Kypreos reported that any potential deal would likely involve Skinner heading to St. Louis. Kypreos also mentioned that the Oilers might be interested in acquiring a defenseman from the Blues, with Justin Faulk and Colton Parayko being potential targets.
A significant hurdle in acquiring Binnington is his $6 million cap hit, which extends through the 2026-27 season. The Oilers would need to shed salary to accommodate Binnington's contract, potentially involving moving out players like Skinner, Brett Kulak, and Mattias Janmark.
