The 2025 U.S. Open is underway at Oakmont Country Club, a notoriously difficult course that is living up to its reputation. After the first round, the projected cut line is a major topic of conversation, as numerous big names find themselves in danger of missing the weekend. The U.S. Open cut rules dictate that only the top 60 players and ties after 36 holes will advance to the third and fourth rounds. This contrasts with other major tournaments like the PGA Championship and the Open Championship, which take the top 70 and ties, and the Masters, which takes the top 50 and ties from a smaller field.
Currently, projections for the cut line vary. Some sources suggest a cut line of +3, while others lean towards +5, +6, or even +7. Data Golf, for instance, initially gave a significant probability to +6 and +7. The exact cut line will depend on how the course plays during Friday's second round and is something that can shift rapidly depending on scoring conditions. Last year, the U.S. Open cut line at Pinehurst was +5. In previous years, the cut line has been +2 in 2023, +3 in 2022, and +4 in 2021. Notably, the last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont in 2016, the cut was at +6. In 2007 at Oakmont, the cut was a staggering +10.
Following the first round, J.J. Spaun emerged as the leader, posting a 4-under 66. Thriston Lawrence is in second place at 3-under, while Brooks Koepka, Sungjae Im, and Si Woo Kim are tied for third at 2-under. The challenging conditions at Oakmont have resulted in a leaderboard where under-par scores are a premium, and many prominent players are fighting to stay in contention.
Several notable golfers are currently on the edge or outside the projected cut line. Rory McIlroy, who had a difficult first round with a score of 4-over, needs to improve his position to avoid an early exit. Other major champions such as Matt Fitzpatrick and Wyndham Clark are also around the projected cut. Past U.S. Open winners, including Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose, face an uphill battle to make the cut after struggling in the first round. Phil Mickelson, seeking to complete the career grand slam at the U.S. Open, is also in danger of missing the cut.
The U.S. Open is known for its demanding course conditions, and Oakmont is no exception. The thick rough and fast greens have challenged even the world's best golfers. The pressure to make the cut at the U.S. Open is unique, as players know that only the top portion of the field will have the opportunity to compete for the championship over the weekend.
As the second round unfolds, all eyes will be on the projected cut line and which players can navigate Oakmont's challenges to secure their place in the final two rounds.
