The Edmonton Oilers and Evan Bouchard are navigating a crucial offseason negotiation, aiming to find a "sweet spot deal" that benefits both the player and the team. Bouchard, a restricted free agent (RFA), is in line for a significant raise from his previous $3.9 million average annual value (AAV) contract, which expired at the end of the 2024-25 season. With the Oilers facing salary cap constraints, finding a mutually agreeable number and contract term is essential.
Several factors are influencing these negotiations. Bouchard's performance over the past two seasons has solidified his position as a top-pairing defenseman, making him a key asset for the Oilers. He has consistently ranked high in Norris Trophy voting, showcasing his offensive capabilities and improving defensive game. His offensive prowess is undeniable, further enhanced by the addition of Paul Coffey to the coaching staff, which has allowed Bouchard to refine his skills even more.
The Oilers' cap situation adds complexity to the negotiations. While the team recently cleared $5.125 million in cap space by trading Evander Kane to the Vancouver Canucks, they still need to manage their resources carefully. With Leon Draisaitl's new contract taking effect and Connor McDavid's looming extension, the Oilers must be strategic in allocating their funds. Currently, the Oilers have a projected cap space of $17,087,500 for the 2025-26 season.
Several contract scenarios are being considered. A long-term, max-term extension of eight years would provide Bouchard with security and potentially a higher AAV. However, this could further strain the Oilers' cap situation in the long run. AFP Analytics projects such a deal could cost the Oilers around $10.9 million AAV. Some reports suggest Bouchard's camp is seeking an eight-year deal with a $10 million AAV. A shorter-term "bridge" deal, possibly in the four-year range, could lower the immediate cap hit and allow Bouchard to re-enter free agency at age 29, when he could command an even more lucrative contract with a potentially higher salary cap. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic suggests a four-year deal might be the most sensible option, drawing parallels to Auston Matthews' situation with the Toronto Maple Leafs, as Bouchard is represented by the same agency, Wasserman Hockey.
The risk of an offer sheet looms if the Oilers and Bouchard cannot reach an agreement before other teams can reach out to the RFA. Brian Lawton suggested a "predatory offer sheet" could be coming Bouchard's way if a deal isn't finalized before July 1st. The Oilers, who experienced offer sheet complications last summer with Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, are keen to avoid a repeat scenario.
Ultimately, the "sweet spot deal" will likely involve a balance between Bouchard's desire for a substantial raise and long-term security and the Oilers' need to manage their cap effectively to remain competitive. A shorter-term deal around four years may be the most plausible outcome, providing Bouchard with a significant raise while giving the Oilers more flexibility in the coming years. This approach would allow Bouchard to capitalize on a potentially higher salary cap in his next negotiation, while the Oilers can better navigate their cap constraints with other key players' contracts on the horizon.
