As the dust settles on the 2025 World Series, Major League Baseball teams are already strategizing for the upcoming offseason, with the qualifying offer (QO) being a key element in their plans. The qualifying offer is a one-year contract offered to a team's impending free agents, and it plays a significant role in free agency and draft pick compensation.

Qualifying Offer Value and Mechanics

For the 2025 offseason, the qualifying offer is valued at $21.05 million. This figure is derived by calculating the average of the top 125 salaries in MLB. Teams have five days following the end of the World Series to extend a qualifying offer to eligible players. Players then have until 4 p.m. ET on November 19 to decide whether to accept or decline the offer.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, they will play for that team for the 2025 season under a one-year contract worth $21.05 million. If a player declines the offer and signs with another team, their former team is eligible to receive draft pick compensation. The team signing the player may forfeit one or more draft picks.

Eligibility and Restrictions

There are specific rules regarding player eligibility for the qualifying offer. A team can only extend a qualifying offer to a player if they meet the following criteria:

1. The player must have spent the entire season on that team's roster. This means that players acquired via trade during the season are ineligible.
2. The player must never have received a qualifying offer previously in their career.

Draft Pick Compensation

The draft pick compensation a team receives for losing a player who declines a qualifying offer depends on factors such as the team's revenue-sharing status and whether they exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold.

• Revenue-sharing recipients: If a team receives revenue-sharing money and loses a player who signs for at least $50 million, they will receive a draft pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick will be after Competitive Balance Round B.
• Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) Payors: If a team exceeded the CBT threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the fourth round.
• All Other Teams: Teams that do not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the CBT threshold will lose their second-highest pick in the following year's draft and $500,000 from their international bonus pool.

Teams that sign free agents who rejected a qualifying offer are subject to losing draft picks. A team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture.

Players Likely to Receive Qualifying Offers

Several players were identified as potential candidates to receive a qualifying offer. Some of the notable names include:

• Willy Adames (Brewers)
• Pete Alonso (Mets)
• Alex Bregman (Astros)
• Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
• Max Fried (Braves)
• Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
• Sean Manaea (Mets)
• Anthony Santander (Orioles)
• Juan Soto (Yankees)
• Christian Walker (D-backs)

It's important to note that these are just predictions, and the actual decisions will depend on the specific circumstances of each team and player.

Strategic Considerations

Teams consider several factors when deciding whether to extend a qualifying offer. They must weigh the potential benefits of retaining the player for another year against the possibility of receiving a draft pick if the player signs elsewhere. Teams also assess the player's market value and the likelihood of them accepting the offer.

The qualifying offer system adds a layer of complexity to MLB free agency, influencing team strategies and player decisions. As teams navigate the 2025 offseason, the qualifying offer will undoubtedly be a key topic of discussion and a crucial element in shaping their rosters for the future.