Darnell Nurse's eight-year, $74 million contract with the Edmonton Oilers, signed in 2021, has been a frequent topic of debate among hockey analysts and fans. With an annual cap hit of $9.25 million, it's a significant investment, and whether Nurse lives up to that value is a recurring question. However, a new model suggests that Nurse's contract might not be as detrimental as some believe.
Conventional wisdom often points to Nurse's raw offensive statistics as a reason for concern. Since signing the deal, he has recorded 36 goals and 143 points in 310 games. While these numbers aren't negligible, they don't necessarily align with the offensive output typically expected from a defenseman earning over $9 million per year. This has led some to argue that the contract was an overpayment based on a breakout season during the COVID-19 pandemic-shortened year.
However, focusing solely on point production overlooks other crucial aspects of Nurse's game. He consistently plays top-pairing minutes against the opposition's best players, a role that demands strong defensive capabilities and the ability to handle pressure. Nurse is known for his physicality, shot-blocking, and overall toughness, qualities that don't always show up on the scoresheet but are vital to a team's success.
Furthermore, any new model assessing contract value likely considers the rising NHL salary cap. The cap has been steadily increasing, and is projected to continue to do so. What might have seemed like an overpayment a few years ago could be closer to market value in today's landscape.
The Oilers' current cap situation reveals some interesting context. While they have stars like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl taking up a significant portion of the cap, strategic moves have been made to create more flexibility. Recent trades, such as those involving Evander Kane and Viktor Arvidsson, have freed up cap space, allowing the team to address other needs. With a projected $44.9 million in cap space next summer, the Oilers are in a decent position to make further adjustments to their roster.
It's also important to remember that contract value isn't solely determined by on-ice performance. Factors like leadership, experience, and the player's impact on team culture also play a role. Nurse has served as an alternate captain for the Oilers, indicating his importance in the locker room. His durability is also a valuable asset, as he consistently plays a large number of games and logs heavy minutes.
Ultimately, whether Darnell Nurse's contract is "good" or "bad" is subjective and depends on the criteria used for evaluation. While his offensive numbers might not match his cap hit, his overall contribution to the Oilers, along with the rising salary cap, suggests that his contract might not be among the league's worst. A more nuanced perspective, one that incorporates advanced stats, ice time, quality of competition, and intangible qualities, is needed to truly assess his value to the team.
