The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the 2025-26 NHL season facing a significant challenge: replacing the production of Mitch Marner, who was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights. After another disappointing playoff exit, major changes have occurred, including trading Marner and a shift in the team's approach to filling roster holes. Instead of seeking a like-for-like replacement for Marner, the Maple Leafs have opted for a collective approach, adding depth and betting on internal options to step up.

Offensive Outlook

The departure of Marner, who led the team with 102 points last season, leaves a substantial void. Marner's playmaking ability and chemistry with Auston Matthews will be difficult to replicate. To address this, the Maple Leafs acquired Matias Maccelli from the Utah Mammoth. Maccelli, who had a 57-point season in 2023-24, is expected to get the first chance to play alongside Matthews and Matthew Knies on the top line. While Maccelli may not match Marner's offensive output, the team hopes he can contribute as a playmaker and help drive offense.

Other players who may see increased offensive responsibility include Max Domi, who has shown promise when paired with Matthews. Matthew Knies is also expected to continue his development after a strong 2024-25 season where he scored 29 goals and 58 points. John Tavares, despite his age, remains a key offensive contributor, and the team will need him to maintain his scoring pace. Overall, the Maple Leafs will need a collective effort from their forwards to compensate for Marner's absence and maintain a high-octane offense.

Defensive and Goaltending Outlook

Last season, the Maple Leafs were solid defensively, allowing the eighth-fewest goals in the league. Key defensemen like Chris Tanev and Simon Benoit provide a physical presence and shot-blocking ability. Morgan Rielly, is expected to quarterback the power play and increase his offensive output. The team also added Henry Thrun from the San Jose Sharks to bolster their defensive depth.

In goal, the Maple Leafs have a strong tandem in Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll. Stolarz, in particular, had an impressive 2024-25 season, posting a .926 save percentage. Woll has shown flashes of brilliance but needs to maintain consistency. However, Woll is currently dealing with a family matter, and James Reimer has been signed to a PTO.

Overall Projections

Several factors will influence the Maple Leafs' point projection for the 2025-26 season. The team's ability to replace Marner's offensive production, the continued development of young players like Knies, and the performance of their goaltending tandem will be crucial.

Some projections suggest the Maple Leafs will remain a playoff team but may not be a top Stanley Cup contender. One AI simulation gave the Maple Leafs a 94% chance of making the playoffs but zero Stanley Cups after 100 simulations. Another source predicts the Leafs will finish with 108 points. The team's success will depend on their ability to adapt to life without Marner and find consistent scoring throughout the lineup.

Areas for Improvement

• Offensive Consistency: Replacing Marner's production will be a key challenge. The team needs consistent scoring from their top players and contributions from depth forwards.
• Power Play: With Marner gone, the power play will need to adjust. Rielly's performance as the power-play quarterback will be critical.
• Playoff Success: Despite regular-season success, the Maple Leafs have struggled in the playoffs. Overcoming this hurdle will require mental toughness and the ability to perform under pressure.

Overall, the Maple Leafs' point projection for the 2025-26 season is uncertain due to the changes in the team's roster. While they have a solid core of players and a strong goaltending tandem, their ability to replace Marner's production and improve their playoff performance will determine their ultimate success.