The Columbus Blue Jackets are facing a pivotal moment with young star Adam Fantilli as he approaches the end of his entry-level contract. The rising NHL salary cap, projected to reach $95.5 million in 2025-26, $104 million in 2026-27, and $113.5 million in 2027-28, could significantly influence the negotiations for his next deal and potentially push his contract into a higher, more costly range.
Fantilli, drafted third overall in 2023, has shown immense promise and is viewed as a potential number-one center for the Blue Jackets. Despite missing a significant portion of his rookie season due to injury, he has accumulated 43 goals and 81 points in 131 NHL games. His performance, particularly in the latter half of last season where he scored 24 goals and 39 points in 44 games, indicates a trajectory toward becoming a dominant player.
Given Fantilli's potential and the rising salary cap, the Blue Jackets face a strategic decision: offer a long-term contract now or risk a more expensive deal later. Extending Fantilli before the upcoming season could potentially save the team money and secure him for a longer term. However, waiting until after the season could allow Fantilli to further increase his value, especially if he continues his impressive scoring pace.
Several factors contribute to the complexity of this negotiation. Comparable players, such as Jack Eichel, whose contract represented 12.58% of the cap at the time it was signed, can provide a framework for discussions. Applying a similar percentage to the projected $95.5 million cap in 2025-26 could result in an average annual value (AAV) of around $11.5 to $12 million for Fantilli. Some projections even suggest that a long-term deal could exceed $13 million per year.
The increasing salary cap also changes the context of player contracts. As the cap rises, existing contracts become relatively less burdensome, and new contracts are expected to reflect the higher cap environment. This means that Fantilli's next contract could be significantly larger than comparable deals signed in previous years.
Columbus has a little over $16 million in cap space. Other players on the Blue Jackets roster include Kent Johnson, who recently signed a three-year deal with an AAV of $1.8 million.
Ultimately, the Blue Jackets' decision on Fantilli's contract will depend on their long-term vision for the team and their assessment of his potential. While a short-term "bridge" contract might seem like a cost-effective option, it could lead to a much larger payday for Fantilli if he continues to develop into a top-tier player. A long-term commitment would signal the team's confidence in Fantilli and potentially secure his services at a manageable cap hit, especially as the cap continues to rise.
