The Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina 2026 are fast approaching, and anticipation is building as nations finalize preparations and athletes gear up for competition. Predicting the top-performing countries in any Olympics is a complex task, influenced by factors ranging from historical performance and investment in winter sports infrastructure to the emergence of new talent and even geopolitical considerations. However, by analyzing current trends and recent performances, we can attempt to forecast the "First 6" in the medal standings.
Norway: It's hard to look past Norway, the dominant force in recent Winter Olympics. They topped the medal table in 2018 and 2022, and their consistent investment in winter sports, coupled with a strong sporting culture, makes them a perennial favorite. While some stars like Johannes Thingnes Bø and Jarl Magnus Riiber may retire, Norway's depth suggests they'll remain a force. Prediction models also place Norway at the top.
Germany: Germany is another winter sports powerhouse with a long tradition of success. Their strength lies in a diverse range of sports, from bobsleigh and luge to alpine skiing and biathlon. Germany's well-funded sports programs and experienced athletes make them a strong contender for a top spot.
Canada: Canada is always a strong contender in the Winter Olympics, fueled by a national passion for winter sports and significant investment in athlete development. They are expected to perform strongly in ice hockey. With NHL players returning to the Olympics, Canada is the favorite to win gold in men's ice hockey. Their performance will be bolstered by an elite core of players like Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cale Makar.
United States: The United States has consistently placed high in the medal standings, finishing second in 2014, fourth in 2018, and fifth in 2022. The US could see a boost from rising stars, notably in speed skating (Jordan Stolz) and short track (Kristen Santos-Griswold). Additionally, freestyle skiing has become a significant source of medals for the U.S., and 2026 looks promising in that area. Mikaela Shiffrin is also aiming for redemption after a disappointing run in the 2022 Olympics.
Sweden: Sweden is a consistent performer in winter sports, particularly in cross-country skiing, alpine skiing, and ice hockey. They have a strong tradition in these sports and a dedicated fan base.
Netherlands: While not traditionally a winter sports giant, the Netherlands has made significant strides in recent years, particularly in speed skating. Their dominance in this sport has propelled them up the medal table, and they are expected to continue their strong performance in Milano Cortina.
Of course, these are just predictions, and the Winter Olympics are known for their upsets and surprises. Rising stars could emerge from unexpected nations, and injuries or unforeseen circumstances can derail even the most carefully laid plans. Other countries to watch include Italy, as the host nation, who will be motivated to perform well in front of a home crowd, and China, who have invested heavily in winter sports and are looking to build on their success in Beijing 2022. Also, An Xiangyi is a rising star in China's women's singles figure skating team. Ultimately, the true outcome will only be revealed when the Games begin in February 2026.
