Kyle Larson's return to the Indianapolis 500 in 2025 has generated considerable buzz, amplified by his attempt to complete "The Double" for the second time – racing both the Indy 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 on the same day. After weather impacted his ability to complete both races in 2024, what should the expectations be for the NASCAR superstar this year?

Larson's debut in the 2024 Indy 500 was impressive, earning him Rookie of the Year honors after starting fifth and finishing 18th. However, a pit-road speeding penalty hampered his chances of a better result. This year, Larson qualified 21st but will start 19th due to penalties assessed to Josef Newgarden and Will Power. While not as high as his starting position last year, this still places him in a solid position to contend.

Several factors will influence Larson's performance. First, his experience from last year is invaluable. He now has a better understanding of the race, the car, and the challenges of racing in traffic at Indianapolis. He has stated that he feels his balance is better this year than last year. Second, he is driving for Arrow McLaren, a top-tier IndyCar team. They provide him with excellent equipment and experienced teammates to learn from, including Pato O'Ward. Third, Larson is one of the most talented and versatile drivers in motorsports. His ability to adapt quickly to different cars and racing styles is a major asset.

Despite these advantages, Larson faces several challenges. The Indy 500 is one of the most unpredictable races in the world. Accidents, mechanical failures, and strategic gambles can all play a significant role in the outcome. He also has limited experience with the IndyCar hybrid system. Furthermore, completing "The Double" is a grueling physical and mental challenge. Successfully racing 500 miles at Indianapolis and then flying to Charlotte to race 600 miles in the Coca-Cola 600 requires immense stamina and focus.

Given these factors, what are reasonable expectations for Larson? While a win is possible, it is not the most likely outcome. The Indy 500 is a race where even the most experienced drivers can have bad luck. A realistic expectation is for Larson to be competitive throughout the race and finish in the top 10. If he can avoid mistakes and his team makes good strategic calls, a top-5 finish is within reach.

It's also important to consider the betting odds. As of May 19, 2025, Larson's odds to win the Indy 500 were around +1700, which puts him as a mid-tier contender. While odds are not always indicative of the final result, they reflect the general sentiment of experts and the public. Pato O'Ward and Alex Palou are among the favorites.

Ultimately, Larson's success in the Indy 500 will depend on a combination of skill, preparation, and luck. He has the talent and the team to contend for a win, but he will need to execute flawlessly and avoid any major setbacks. Regardless of the outcome, Larson's participation in the Indy 500 and his attempt at "The Double" are a major boost for both IndyCar and NASCAR.