The 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup is underway, and while the United States Men's National Team (USMNT) is always a team to watch, several factors suggest they aren't a top-three contender this year. This assessment isn't about dismissing their chances entirely, but rather acknowledging the landscape of the tournament and the specific challenges facing the USMNT.

Firstly, squad rotation is a major factor. Unlike Mexico and Canada, who have called upon many of their top players from European clubs, the USMNT is fielding a heavily rotated squad. Key players like Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, and Folarin Balogun are absent for various reasons. This means that a significant portion of the team consists of MLS players, some of whom lack experience in major international tournaments. While this provides an opportunity for these players to shine, it also introduces an element of uncertainty. Chemistry and cohesion, often built through playing together regularly, might be lacking compared to teams with more established lineups.

Secondly, recent form raises some concerns. The USMNT struggled in their warm-up matches, suffering defeats against Turkey and Switzerland. While friendly results shouldn't be taken as gospel, they can indicate underlying issues with team preparation and tactical execution. In contrast, Mexico enters the Gold Cup fresh off winning the Concacaf Nations League Finals, showcasing their competitive footing. Canada, despite missing Alphonso Davies, boasts a strong squad with Jonathan David and Stephen Eustaquio, demonstrating their potential to make a deep run in the tournament.

Thirdly, the competition is fierce. Mexico, as always, is a strong contender, entering the tournament as slight favorites. They have a proven track record in the Gold Cup, and their recent Nations League triumph demonstrates their current form. Canada, under the guidance of Jesse Marsch, is also a team to watch. They finished fourth in the 2024 Copa América tournament, proving they can compete against top-level opposition. Furthermore, teams like Panama have a history of performing well in this tournament and shouldn't be underestimated.

Fourthly, while the USMNT has a favorable historical record against their Group D opponents, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago, and Saudi Arabia, past results don't guarantee future success. Each tournament presents new challenges, and the USMNT must be prepared to perform at their best in every match.

Lastly, it's important to consider the odds. While the USMNT is among the favorites to win the tournament, they are slightly behind Mexico. Canada, with longer odds, is still considered a serious threat. These odds reflect the perceived strength of each team and their likelihood of winning the Gold Cup.

In conclusion, while the USMNT undoubtedly possesses talent and potential, several factors contribute to the assessment that they aren't a top-three favorite in this year's Concacaf Gold Cup. The combination of squad rotation, recent form, strong competition from Mexico and Canada, and the inherent unpredictability of tournament football creates a challenging path for the USMNT. However, football is a game of surprises, and the USMNT has the opportunity to prove this assessment wrong and compete for the Gold Cup title.