The 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup final is set, and it's the rivalry matchup that many anticipated: USA vs. Mexico. The two North American giants will face off on Sunday, July 6, at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. For sportsbooks, this is the ideal scenario, pitting the USMNT against El Tri in a championship showdown during the Fourth of July weekend.
The Road to the Final
The USMNT secured their place in the final with a 2-1 victory over Guatemala in the semi-final, led by a strong performance from Diego Luna. Meanwhile, Mexico advanced after a 1-0 win against Honduras, with Raúl Jiménez scoring the decisive goal.
Throughout the tournament, the USMNT finished atop Group D, winning all three matches and conceding only one goal. Mexico, on the other hand, had a slightly tougher path, finishing the group stage tied with Costa Rica but winning Group A on goal difference. In the quarter-finals, the USA edged out Costa Rica in a penalty shootout, while Mexico defeated Saudi Arabia 2-0.
Odds and Predictions
Heading into the final, Mexico is favored by bookmakers to win their record-extending 10th Gold Cup title. As of July 3, 2025, Mexico was listed as the favorite at +145, with the USMNT at +190 and a draw at +210. DraftKings listed the Mexico moneyline at +150.
Some notable prop bets for the final include: * Second Half Moneyline: Mexico +180, USA +230 * Both Teams to Score: Yes -110 * Winning Margin Mexico: To win by 1 goal +255 * Total Team Goals USA: Over 0.5 goals -340
Historical Context
The United States and Mexico have a long and storied history in the Gold Cup, having met in the final eight times since 1991. Mexico has won six of those finals, while the USMNT has won four. Their most recent final matchup was in 2021, when Miles Robinson's extra-time header secured the USMNT's seventh Gold Cup trophy. Overall, Mexico has won a Gold Cup-best nine titles, while the U.S. has the second-most with seven. Together, they have dominated the tournament, with only Canada winning the trophy in 2000 outside of these two. This will be the 11th meeting in a cup final between these two teams. Mexico has 37 wins, the USMNT has 24 wins, and there have been 17 draws in the 78 total matches played between them.
Keys to the Game
For the USMNT, Diego Luna has been a standout player, and the team will need another strong performance from him to lift the trophy. The USMNT's defense will also need to be strong, as they have conceded one goal in each of their last three matches.
Mexico's defense has been solid, not allowing a goal since their group-stage opener. Raúl Jiménez has been a key player in attack, and they will need him to be clinical in front of goal.
The match is scheduled to kick off at 7:00 p.m. ET and will be broadcast live on FOX (USA - English), Univision and TUDN (USA - Spanish), Televisa (Mexico), and ESPN and Disney+ (Caribbean, Central & South America).
