Day 4 of the second Test between India and England at Edgbaston promises to be another intriguing chapter in what has already been a captivating match. India holds a significant advantage, leading by 244 runs with nine wickets in hand as they begin their second innings. However, the weather forecast suggests potential rain interruptions, which could play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

At the close of Day 3, India stood at 64/1 in their second innings. KL Rahul (28) and Karun Nair (7) were at the crease, tasked with building a substantial lead for India. The initial goal for the Indian batting lineup will be to post a target in excess of 400 runs, thereby putting immense pressure on the English batsmen in the fourth innings.

India's first innings saw them amass a formidable 587, propelled by a magnificent double century from Shubman Gill (269) and supported by half-centuries from Yashasvi Jaiswal and Ravindra Jadeja. In response, England were bowled out for 407. Jamie Smith's remarkable innings of 184* and Harry Brook's 158 helped England recover from a precarious position of 84/5, forging a 303-run partnership. Mohammed Siraj was the pick of the Indian bowlers, claiming six wickets for 70 runs.

The weather forecast for Day 4 indicates a high probability of rain in Birmingham. There is an 84% chance of precipitation throughout the day, with overcast conditions and high humidity. The morning session is expected to have a 60% chance of rain, with 71% humidity and 99% cloud cover. While the cloud cover might reduce slightly in the afternoon, the chances of rain remain significant. The evening offers the least likelihood of rain, with a 55% chance of precipitation.

The cloudy conditions could assist the English bowlers, providing them with swing and movement. India will need to be cautious and play strategically to counter this threat. The Edgbaston pitch has generally been favorable for batting, and this trend is expected to continue on Day 4. Since 2021, Birmingham has recorded the best run rate in England, with batters averaging 31.9 runs per over at a rate of 3.8.

Looking ahead, Shoaib Bashir might play a crucial role for England. He has been effective in the latter stages of the Test, taking eight wickets and averaging 26 on Day 4. His ability to hold one end and test the Indian batsmen will be vital for England.

India's strong batting performance in the third innings recently suggests they are capable of setting a formidable target. They have been scoring at 4.1 runs per over with an average of 41.7, the best among all teams in the last 18 months.

The pressure will be on KL Rahul and Karun Nair to capitalize on their starts and build a substantial partnership. Rahul, in particular, looked comfortable at the crease on Day 3 and will aim to convert his innings into a significant score. Nair, on the other hand, will be keen to silence his critics after a string of poor performances in the series.

Overall, India is in a commanding position, but the looming threat of rain and the resilience of the English side mean that they cannot afford to be complacent. A strong batting display in the first session, combined with smart bowling decisions, will be crucial for India to tighten their grip on the match.