The first Test between India and England at Headingley in Leeds is intriguingly poised as it heads into Day 4. After three days of captivating cricket, momentum could swing either way, with both teams eyeing a crucial victory to set the tone for the five-match series.

India, after posting a formidable 471 in their first innings, saw England respond strongly, eventually being bowled out for 465, giving India a slender six-run lead. Jasprit Bumrah's impressive five-wicket haul was a major highlight for the visitors, though dropped catches did add to some frustration.

India's second innings began cautiously, with KL Rahul looking solid at the crease. However, the early loss of wickets has added some pressure. India ended Day 3 at 90 for 2, extending their lead to 96 runs.

Several factors will play a crucial role on Day 4. The weather in Leeds is expected to have some cloud cover. While significant rain interruptions are not expected, a few brief delays are possible. Both teams will be hoping for maximum play time to force a result.

The pitch at Headingley has generally favored batsmen, but there's also been assistance for the bowlers, especially with the new ball and as the match progresses and the surface wears. Spin could become a factor as the game goes on, potentially bringing England's Shoaib Bashir into play.

For India, the key will be to build a substantial lead. KL Rahul, who looked composed on Day 3, will need to convert his start into a significant score. Contributions from Rishabh Pant, Karun Nair, and Shardul Thakur will also be vital in setting a challenging target for England. A lead of over 300 runs would put India in a strong position, allowing their bowlers to apply pressure on the final day.

England, on the other hand, will aim to restrict India's lead. The England pace attack, led by Ben Stokes and Josh Tongue, will need to strike early and prevent India from running away with the game. If England can keep India's lead under 300, they will fancy their chances of chasing it down on Day 5.

Considering the conditions, the current state of the match, and the strengths of both teams, predicting a winner is a challenging task. India holds a slight advantage due to their lead and the quality of their bowling attack. However, England's batting depth and their ability to counter-attack make them a dangerous opponent.

If India can bat well and set a target of around 350, their chances of winning will significantly increase. Bumrah and the other Indian bowlers will then need to exploit the conditions and apply pressure on the English batsmen.

However, if England manages to restrict India to a smaller lead and bat well on Day 5, they could very well emerge victorious. The match is delicately balanced, and the team that handles the pressure better and executes their plans more effectively will likely come out on top. Day 4 promises to be a crucial and absorbing day of Test cricket.