The Edmonton Oilers recently announced a three-year contract extension for defenseman Mattias Ekholm, carrying an average annual value (AAV) of $4 million. While many fans are hailing this as a steal for the team, a closer look reveals a more nuanced perspective.
Ekholm, who will be 36 years old when the extension kicks in for the 2026-27 season, has been a stabilizing force on the Oilers' blue line since being acquired from the Nashville Predators in 2023. He has been instrumental in elevating Evan Bouchard's game and provides a calming, veteran presence. In 165 games with the Oilers, Ekholm has recorded 24 goals and 92 points with a plus-83 rating. The Oilers clearly value his contributions, and locking him up for an additional three years provides some stability on the defensive end.
The $4 million AAV is undeniably a lower number than Ekholm's current $6.25 million cap hit. On the surface, it appears that Ekholm is taking a significant pay cut to stay in Edmonton. Considering the rising NHL salary cap, which is projected to reach $104 million in 2026-27 and potentially $113.5 million in 2027-28, a $4 million AAV for a top-four defenseman might seem like a bargain.
However, several factors temper the "steal" narrative. First, Ekholm will be 36, 37, and 38 years old during the term of this contract. While he has shown few signs of decline, age-related regression is a concern. It's worth noting that Ekholm missed a significant amount of time at the end of last season with a torn adductor. While he has stated that he feels good after a summer of training, those types of injuries can linger. There is a risk that his performance could decline as he gets older, making the $4 million AAV look less appealing.
Second, the contract includes a full no-move clause (NMC). This limits the Oilers' flexibility should Ekholm's play decline or if they need to free up cap space. While Ekholm has been a valuable player, an NMC on a player in his late 30s is a significant commitment.
Finally, while $4 million may seem like a steal now, the rising salary cap could make it look like a reasonable, or even market value, contract in a few years. As the cap increases, the value of existing contracts decreases. By the time this extension kicks in, $4 million might be the going rate for a third-pairing defenseman.
The Oilers have locked up their core defensemen – Ekholm, Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse, and Jake Walman – for the foreseeable future. This provides certainty and stability as they continue to compete for a Stanley Cup. However, it also means that the Oilers have a significant portion of their cap space tied up in their defense.
In conclusion, while the Ekholm extension is a positive move for the Oilers in the short term, it is not necessarily the massive steal that some fans are making it out to be. The combination of age, injury history, a no-move clause, and the rising salary cap make this a contract with both risks and rewards. Time will tell whether this extension proves to be a shrewd move by the Oilers' management or a decision they come to regret.
