The Premier League has seemingly undergone a tactical shift, but the newfound emphasis on set-pieces, particularly corners, may be a fleeting trend. This season, a notable number of goals have originated from corners, sparking discussion about whether this marks a new tactical orthodoxy.
An example from a recent match between Brentford and Liverpool illustrates this point. Within the first five minutes, Brentford utilized throw-ins, with Michael Kayode taking two from the right-back position to the opposite flank. The second throw-in, flicked on by Kristoffer Ajer and volleyed in by Dango Ouattara, resulted in a goal. While only a small fraction of goals have come from throw-ins, corners have been a significant source, accounting for a substantial percentage of the goals scored this Premier League season.
Specifically, 45 of the 241 goals scored in the Premier League up to this weekend have come from corners, representing 18.7%. Should this proportion persist throughout the season, it would represent a notable increase compared to the high of 14.2% recorded in the 2010-11 season. However, statistical analysis suggests a likely regression to the mean, as historical data reveals no consistent pattern in the proportion of goals scored from corners.
From 2009, the proportion hovered around 11% or 12% most years, and since then it has been at 13-14%. This trend seemingly contradicts the notion that teams had abandoned corners during the peak years of "guardiolismo" only to rediscover their importance recently. In fact, the proportion of goals from corners fell to its lowest level since 2013-14 last season.
The focus on set-pieces could be attributed to various factors, including the increased attention to detail in coaching and the use of data analytics to identify vulnerabilities in opposing defenses. Some teams now employ specialized set-piece coaches who analyze and devise intricate routines to maximize their chances of scoring from dead-ball situations. The use of artificial intelligence in analyzing football tactics is also increasing.
Despite the current emphasis on set-pieces, it's unlikely that this trend will continue indefinitely. As teams adapt and develop strategies to defend against these set-piece routines, the effectiveness of corners and throw-ins as goal-scoring opportunities will likely diminish. The cyclical nature of football tactics suggests that the pendulum will eventually swing back towards other areas of the game.
