The United States Men's National Team (USMNT) is heavily favored to win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but recent comments from USMNT legend Landon Donovan suggest that not everyone is taking the competition lightly. The USMNT, currently ranked 14th in the world, will face Australia (ranked 26th), Paraguay (ranked 39th), and the winner of the UEFA Path C playoff (either Turkey, Romania, Slovakia, or Kosovo).

Odds favor the USMNT to win the group. DraftKings has the USA at +150 to win Group D, implying a 40% probability. Several experts agree that the USMNT is poised to advance to the knockout stage and potentially make a deep run in the tournament. Brad Guzan stated, "I think they're absolutely going to top the group and get ready for the knockout rounds".

However, Landon Donovan has added an interesting layer to the narrative with his strong reaction to comments made by Australia's coach, Tony Popovic. Popovic, after the draw, expressed satisfaction and optimism about Australia's chances, a sentiment that Donovan found "smug". Donovan, appearing on a FOX Soccer podcast, predicted that Australia would finish last in Group D and sarcastically suggested Popovic could "get back on the Qantas airplane and head back home, pal". He said Popovic had "this smugness about him".

Donovan's criticism comes despite acknowledging that Australia is a "solid team" and "hard to play against". He clarified, "this is not going to be some blowout. But it's a team I think we should beat". Donovan, along with Cobi Jones and Brad Guzan, all believe the USMNT will win the group, with the playoff winner finishing second and Paraguay in third.

While the USMNT is favored, some analysts caution against underestimating the other teams in Group D. A win against Turkey in the UEFA Path C playoff would create a scenario where all four teams in Group D are within FIFA's top 40. The USMNT also suffered a 2-1 loss to Turkey in a friendly in June 2025, showing that the playoff winner could pose a threat. Paraguay, too, has the potential to surprise, with players like Miguel Almirón and Julio Enciso.

The USMNT will open the group stage against Paraguay on June 12 in Inglewood, followed by a match against Australia on June 19 in Seattle, and conclude the group stage against the UEFA Path C winner on June 25 in Inglewood. As a host nation, expectations are high for the USMNT to not only advance from Group D but also to make a deep run in the tournament.