Jonathan Huberdeau's eight-year, $84 million contract with the Calgary Flames has been ranked as the worst in the NHL for the second consecutive year by The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn. The analyst cites a significant decline in Huberdeau's production since joining the Flames and a widening gap between his salary and on-ice value as the primary reasons for the unfavorable ranking.
Huberdeau, 32, is currently under contract with the Flames until the end of the 2030-31 season. The contract, which carries an average annual value of $10.5 million, was signed in August 2022 after Huberdeau was traded to Calgary from the Florida Panthers.
Expectations were high for Huberdeau, who had just come off a career year with the Panthers, tallying 115 points (30 goals, 85 assists) in 80 games. However, his performance dipped significantly upon arriving in Calgary. In his first season with the Flames (2022-23), he recorded just 55 points, followed by 52 points in the 2023-24 season. Last season, Huberdeau showed some improvement, scoring 28 goals and 34 assists for 62 points in 81 games. Despite the uptick, his production remains far below what is expected of a player earning $10.5 million per year.
Luszczyszyn's analysis evaluates a player's projected performance against their salary cap hit. According to his model, Huberdeau's "Net Rating" is nearly nine goals below expectations for someone at his pay grade. While the analyst acknowledges that Huberdeau is still a decent top-six forward, worth over $6 million, his cap hit remains among the highest in the NHL.
Several factors contribute to the pessimistic outlook on Huberdeau's contract. At 32, he is entering a phase in his career where most players begin to decline. Luszczyszyn's model projects that Huberdeau's "Net Rating" will steadily decline, eventually dropping into negative value in the 2028-29 season. Furthermore, the Flames' lack of offensive support exacerbates the issue.
Huberdeau's contract also includes a full no-move clause, meaning he has full control over any potential trade. Given his age, declining production, and hefty cap hit, it is unlikely that many teams would be interested in acquiring him.
The situation is particularly tough for Huberdeau, as his former team, the Florida Panthers, have appeared in three straight Stanley Cup Finals and won two. Meanwhile, the Flames have struggled to find success. Despite the criticism, Huberdeau has expressed a desire to improve and contribute to the Flames. However, the clock is ticking, and the Flames need to find a way to maximize his value before his contract becomes an even bigger burden.